Survivor bias is a logical fallacy that distorts the perception of reality by relying only on examples that have survived a process or event while ignoring cases that did not. This bias can lead to erroneous conclusions and inappropriate decision making, as it is based on a biased sample of results. In this article, we will explore in detail what survivorship bias is, how it manifests itself in different contexts, and what its implications are in psychology and everyday life.
Origin and Concept of Survival Bias
The concept of survivorship bias has its roots in World War II, when scientists faced the challenge of improving the protection of aircraft against enemy fire. Initially, they focused on reinforcing areas where they saw hits on planes returning from missions, assuming those were the critical areas that needed additional protection. However, Hungarian mathematician Abraham Wald noted that this approach was skewed by survivorship bias, as they were only considering aircraft that had returned, omitting those that had been shot down and had not been accounted for.
From this example, survivorship bias has been used to explain the human tendency to focus on cases of success or survival, ignoring failures or losses. This distortion in perception can lead to an erroneous evaluation of the situation, since it is based on an incomplete or biased sample of reality.
Manifestations of Survival Bias
The Survivorship bias manifests itself in various areas of daily life and can influence decision making in different contexts. Below are some of the ways this bias can appear:
1. In the business field:
In the business world, survivorship bias can be observed when only the success of companies that have managed to stay in the market is analyzed, without considering those that failed and disappeared. This can lead to the mistaken belief that certain strategies are infallible, when in reality there are numerous cases of failure that are not being taken into account.
2. In the field of investing:
In the field of investing, survivorship bias can lead investors to rely solely on the success stories of certain stocks or assets, without considering the cases in which that the investments resulted in significant losses. This tendency to focus on positive cases can lead to risky or poorly informed financial decisions.
3. In scientific research:
In scientific research, survivorship bias can occur when only studies that have yielded positive or significant results are published, while those with negative or inconclusive results are ignored or ignored. they get to see the light. This can distort the perception of the available scientific evidence and affect the replicability of the studies.
Implications of Survivorship Bias in Psychology
Survival bias also has important implications in the field of psychology, both in research and clinical practice. This bias can influence how the results of psychological studies are interpreted and how certain problems or disorders are addressed. Some of the implications of survivorship bias in psychology are explored below:
1. In psychological research:
In psychological research, survivorship bias can manifest itself when only studies that confirm a hypothesis or theory are published, omitting those that do not yield the expected results. This can distort the understanding of certain psychological phenomena and limit the advancement of knowledge in the field of psychology.
2. In the evaluation and treatment of disorders:
In clinical practice, survivorship bias can influence the evaluation and treatment of psychological disorders, since more attention tends to be paid to cases that have been successful in their recovery, while cases that have not responded favorably to interventions are ignored or minimized. This can bias the perception of the effectiveness of certain therapies and limit the treatment options available.
3. In the training of psychology professionals:
Survivor bias can also affect the training of psychology professionals, since there is a tendency to highlight successful cases in clinical practice or research , while errors or failures that are also part of the learning process are neglected. This can create a distorted view of reality and make it difficult to develop critical skills for professional practice.
How to Avoid Survivorship Bias?
To counteract the effects of survival bias survival, it is important to adopt strategies that help us have a more balanced and objective vision of reality. Some of the measures we can take include:
1. Consider all of the data:
It is essential not to base our decisions solely on cases of success or survival, but rather to consider all of the available data, including cases of failure or loss. This will allow us to have a more complete and realistic perspective of the situation and make more informed decisions.
2. Analyze mistakes and failures:
It is important to reflect on mistakes and failures, both your own and those of others, to learn from them and avoid falling into the trap of survivorship bias. Recognizing and analyzing the causes of failures allows us to identify areas for improvement and take measures to avoid repeating the same mistakes in the future.
3. Look for diverse sources of information:
To avoid the influence of survivorship bias, it is advisable to look for diverse sources of information and opinions that allow us to have a broader and more objective vision of reality. Exposing ourselves to different points of view and experiences can enrich our understanding and avoid falling into the trap of oversimplification.
Conclusion
In summary, survivorship bias is a logical fallacy that It distorts our perception of reality by focusing only on cases of success or survival, ignoring cases of failure or loss. This bias can have important implications for decision-making in different contexts, including business, investment, scientific and psychological fields. To counteract the effects of survivorship bias, it is essential to consider all the data, analyze errors and failures, and look for diverse sources of information that help us have a more balanced and objective view of reality.